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Nasdaq Climbs 1.2%, VIX Falls to 17.52: Desk Notes for the Fed Decision and Microsoft, Alphabet Earnings

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Desk Notes, Oct 28, 2026: Nasdaq Climbs 1.2%, VIX Falls to 17.52

Wednesday, October 28, 2026, brings the Fed’s rate decision at 2 p.m. ET and, after the close, results from Microsoft and Alphabet. Tuesday set it up with a split market. The Nasdaq Composite rose 308.43 points, or 1.18%, to 26,477.81, the S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 7,722.60, and the Russell 2000 added 1.16% to 2,818.87, while the Dow finished up just 15.99 points, or 0.03%, at 52,377.57, per TheStreet’s market wrap. Tech again led, with TheStreet linking the move to continued enthusiasm after Anthropic’s IPO filing. Boeing fell about 10% after cutting its full-year delivery target, which weighed on the Dow.

What the late tape said

  • The VIX kept easing. The VIX closed at 17.52, down 0.87 points or 4.7% on the day, after opening at 18.43, per ad-hoc-news market data. That is its second straight decline heading into the Fed.
  • Rates vol: no fresh print confirmed. No new MOVE index reading could be confirmed from a source this morning, so it is left out today.
  • The 10-year crossed back above 5%. Early Wednesday the 10-year yield was about 5.01%, up more than 2 basis points, the 2-year about 4.75%, and the 30-year about 5.32%, per TokenPost’s Treasury report published at 6:25 a.m. ET.
  • The 5-year auction was in line. Treasury sold $70 billion of 5-year notes at a high yield of 4.845%. The bid-to-cover was 2.33 against a 2.31 average, indirect bidders took 60.0% against a 64.0% average, and the auction tailed by 0.4 basis point, per Helious auction data.
  • Consumers turned more upbeat. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 91.7 in October from 84.2 in September. The expectations index climbed 6.9 points to 72.6, per the Conference Board release.
  • Oil rebounded. Around 6:30 a.m. ET, Brent was near $115.11 a barrel, up about 1.1%, and WTI near $101.65, up about 1.75%, per 5paisa’s crude price update. It cited a Reuters report that the Houthis said they targeted a major Saudi refinery, a claim Saudi authorities had not confirmed. On Tuesday, ad-hoc-news had WTI down 1.53% at $100.20.
  • Futures were mixed. At 4:53 a.m. ET Reuters had Nasdaq 100 E-minis up 0.41%, S&P 500 E-minis up 0.1%, and Dow E-minis down 0.17%. Chip names rose premarket after SK Hynix results, with its US-listed shares up 7.8% and Micron up 4%, while Robinhood fell 8% after missing profit estimates and Visa slipped 1.7% after its results.

On today’s calendar

  • 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA weekly crude inventories, per the TradingCharts US economic calendar.
  • 2 p.m. ET: the FOMC decision, with the target range currently at 3.75% to 4.00%. Reuters said the consensus leans toward a pause after last month’s hike, and Yahoo Finance said investors will watch Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference for any hawkish lean. Reuters also said markets, per LSEG data, still price at least three more quarter-point hikes by late 2027.
  • Earnings before the open: GE Vernova, Biogen and Boston Scientific, per Reuters.
  • Earnings after the close: Microsoft and Alphabet, per Reuters. Yahoo Finance also lists Ford, T-Mobile US, eBay, Chipotle and ServiceNow on today’s schedule.
  • Later this week: Reuters notes third-quarter GDP and the September PCE report on Thursday, and Amazon and Intel earnings.

What it means for options traders

Vol level on decision day. A VIX in the mid-17s on the day of a Fed decision is a moderate reading, and it has fallen for two sessions. Lower index vol into a scheduled event does not mean the event is priced as small; it can mean the market expects the hold and is focused on what comes after. Look at how much the expiries spanning 2 p.m. today cost compared with the ones just after it before drawing conclusions about “cheap” or “rich” options.

Two events stacked in one afternoon. The Fed at 2 p.m. and two megacap reports after 4 p.m. sit inside the same few hours, with GDP and PCE on Thursday morning. For index options, the front weekly expiry carries all of it. For Microsoft and Alphabet options, single-stock implied vol usually rises into the report and drops sharply after it. That shape is the core of a calendar spread: the short front leg holds the event premium, and once the event passes that premium can collapse while the back month keeps more of its value. The risk runs the other way if the stock gaps far from the strike, and the debit paid is the maximum loss on a long calendar.

Rates back above 5%. The 10-year moving back over 5% ahead of the decision, with oil higher again, means the press conference can move yields as much as stocks. Rate-sensitive sectors and small caps, which led Tuesday alongside tech, can react to a hawkish tone faster than the broad index.

0DTE conditions today. The morning calendar is light, so most of the same-day risk is concentrated at 2 p.m. and during the press conference that follows. Same-day spreads near the money can swing from full value to near zero in minutes around a decision because gamma is concentrated there. Size any same-day structure to its defined maximum loss, not to a planned exit, and expect wider bid-ask spreads around the release.

Desk rule for today: read the morning term structure rather than Tuesday’s close, note what the expiries spanning 2 p.m. are pricing, and treat the after-hours earnings as a separate event from the Fed.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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