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Nasdaq Futures Slide 1%, VIX Falls to 16.91: Desk Notes for GDP, PCE and Amazon, Intel Earnings

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Desk Notes card, Oct 29, 2026: Alphabet drags tech futures before GDP. Tiles: Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.01% at 5:18 a.m. ET, VIX 16.91 down 0.61 points, 10-year yield about 5.00% early Thursday.

Thursday, October 29, 2026, opens with the busiest data morning of the week: third-quarter GDP and the September PCE inflation report at 8:30 a.m. ET, then Amazon and Intel after the close. Wednesday was calm on the surface. The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4.00%, and the S&P 500 rose 21.38 points, or 0.28%, to 7,743.98, the Dow added 97.53 points, or 0.19%, to 52,475.10, the Nasdaq Composite gained 72.04 points, or 0.27%, to 26,549.85, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.41% to 2,830.51, per Investopedia’s market wrap on Yahoo Finance. Oracle jumped about 11% after a strong long-range revenue forecast. The calm broke after the bell, when Alphabet fell about 10% on its results while Microsoft rose.

What the late tape said

  • The Fed held, with two dissents for a hike. The vote was 10-2, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Governor Lisa Cook favoring an increase, per Yahoo Finance. Reuters said traders now see more than an 81% chance of a December hike, per CME FedWatch, and Yahoo Finance put the chance of a quarter-point move at the Dec. 9 meeting near 85%.
  • The VIX eased again. The VIX closed at 16.91, down 0.61 points or 3.48%, per the Investopedia/Yahoo Finance market data. That follows Tuesday’s 17.52 close.
  • Rates vol: no fresh print confirmed. No MOVE index reading could be confirmed from a source this morning, so it is left out today.
  • Yields gave back some of Wednesday’s rise. Early Thursday the 10-year yield was about 5.00%, down from about 5.04% on Wednesday, and the 2-year about 4.69%, down from above 4.77%, per the Associated Press.
  • Oil slipped. Brent was down 0.8% at $110.77 a barrel and WTI down 1.1% at $101.67, per the AP. On Wednesday, Investopedia had WTI up 2.6% at $102.55 at 4 p.m. ET.
  • Futures split by sector. At 5:18 a.m. ET Reuters had Nasdaq 100 E-minis down 303 points, or 1.01%, S&P 500 E-minis down 0.26%, and Dow E-minis up 267 points, or 0.51%. Premarket, Reuters listed Alphabet down 10.2%, Microsoft up 3.6%, Fortinet down 25%, ServiceNow down 18.2% after missing profit estimates, and Chipotle up 6.7%.
  • Overseas was mixed. The AP had Germany’s DAX up 0.8% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 1.1% in early trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.6% and South Korea’s Kospi 1.2%.

On today’s calendar

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays, which includes the PCE price index, per the BEA release schedule. Weekly jobless claims are also due, per Investing.com’s calendar.
  • Midday and afternoon: a 7-year note auction, plus 4- and 8-week bill auctions, per Investing.com’s calendar.
  • Overseas: the European Central Bank meets today, and the Bank of Japan’s meeting ends Friday, per the AP.
  • Earnings before the open: Merck, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, Ares Management and Blue Owl, per Reuters.
  • Earnings after the close: Amazon and Intel, per Reuters.
  • Next week: the US midterm elections on Nov. 3, per the AP.

What it means for options traders

A low index VIX with a big single-stock gap. A VIX below 17 says the market sees modest broad-index risk, yet one megacap is set to open about 10% lower. That gap between index vol and single-stock moves is normal in earnings season: big moves in individual names partly offset one another inside an index. It is a reminder that a calm index reading says little about any one stock’s event risk.

Data first, earnings later. GDP and PCE land before the open and can reprice the December hike odds within minutes, which matters more for rates and rate-sensitive sectors than for any one stock. Amazon and Intel report after 4 p.m. For those names, implied vol usually builds into the report and drops sharply once it is out. A calendar spread is built around that shape: the short front leg holds the event premium, which can collapse after the release while the back month keeps more of its value. If the stock gaps far from the strike, both legs lose value together, and the debit paid is the most a long calendar can lose.

Watch the sector split. With Dow futures up and Nasdaq futures down, the same morning can look calm in one index and stressed in another. Compare implied vol and skew in the index or ETF you actually trade rather than reading the VIX alone.

0DTE conditions today. The 8:30 a.m. data hit before the cash open, so same-day index options start the session after the first reaction. A 7-year auction in the afternoon can move yields again. Same-day spreads near the money can swing quickly when gamma is concentrated there. Size any same-day structure to its defined maximum loss, not to a planned exit, and expect wider bid-ask spreads around the open.

Desk rule for today: let the 8:30 numbers print and read the post-data term structure before acting on Wednesday’s close, and treat Amazon and Intel as separate events from the macro data.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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