Futures Mixed on Election Day; JOLTS, AMD and the Midterms Ahead: Desk Notes for Tuesday

Tuesday, November 3, 2026: index futures are split before the bell as Americans vote in the midterm elections. At about 7:13 a.m. ET, Yahoo Finance’s quote strip showed S&P 500 futures down 0.19% at 7,559.75, Dow futures down 0.94% at 51,641.00, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.10% at 28,154.50 and Russell 2000 futures down 0.24% at 2,810.90. The day is about three things that arrive in order: job openings at 10:00 a.m., AMD after the close, and the first poll closings at 7:00 p.m. Last session in detail: Closing Notes.

Before the bell

• Futures weakening. Earlier readings were firmer: TipRanks had Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.40%, S&P 500 futures down 0.05% and Dow futures down 0.54% at 5:40 a.m. ET. Yahoo Finance gave no single reason for the Dow’s lag.
• Apple and Palantir lower. Bank of Vol had Apple at $323.46, down 4.4%, and Palantir at $167.82, down 5.9%, in its early European note; both beat estimates on Monday night. TipRanks tied Apple to a weaker margin outlook for the holiday quarter and Palantir to worries about slowing contract value and sequential revenue growth.
• Chips bouncing. The same note had Micron up 3.1%, AMD, Intel and Marvell each up 2.9%, and Nvidia up 1.6%.
• VIX elevated. The VIX was at 21.57, up 0.42 points, on Yahoo Finance at about 7:13 a.m. ET. That change is measured from a 21.15 Monday close, which Saxo also reports, up 8.91%. Monday’s Closing Notes carried 18.73 from another source; on these figures, 21.15 is the number to use.
• Yields steady. The 10-year was at 4.89% on Yahoo Finance at about 7:13 a.m. ET. Bank of Vol had the 2-year at 4.59% and the 30-year at 5.28% earlier. Saxo said the MOVE index barely moved; we could not confirm a reading this morning.
• Oil recovering part of Monday’s slide. US crude was at $98.59, up 2.21%, on Yahoo Finance at about 7:13 a.m. ET. TipRanks had Brent at $105.78, up 0.96%, at about 5:40 a.m. ET. Gold was at $3,912.90, down 1.43% (Yahoo Finance).

Monday’s session, for background: the S&P 500 fell 0.51%, the Nasdaq Composite 1.07%, and the Dow rose 0.41% (TipRanks).

On today’s calendar

• 10:00 a.m. ET: September JOLTS, with job openings expected at 7.1 million after 7.09 million, quits at 3.09 million after 3.06 million and layoffs at 1.66 million after 1.64 million. September factory orders are expected up 1.1% after 0.1% (Yahoo Finance; times from Saxo).
• Treasury: $100 billion of 6-week bills (Newsquawk).
• Fed: no appearances confirmed today (Strong Buy Analytics). Newsquawk has Hammack and Barkin on Thursday, and Logan, Williams, Musalem and Bowman on Friday.
• Before the open: Pfizer has already reported and raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance (BioPharmaWatch); we could not confirm the figures. Strong Buy Analytics also lists Shopify, Eaton, Progressive, Marathon Petroleum, Apollo and Ferrari. Benzinga, via KuCoin, had options implying 13.01% for Shopify, 7.82% for Eaton and 4.14% for Pfizer.
• After the close: AMD, with consensus near $1.94 a share on $13.08 billion of revenue and 10.85% implied. Arista at about $1.08 on $3.33 billion, with 10.82% implied. Super Micro at about $1.04 on $14.94 billion (Yahoo Finance; implied moves from Benzinga via KuCoin). Booking, Amgen and Astera Labs are also listed (Strong Buy Analytics).
• Polls: closings begin at 7:00 p.m. ET in Florida, Georgia and Virginia, then 7:30 in Ohio and North Carolina, and 8:00 in Maine, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas (Saxo). Reuters reported polls suggest Democrats will likely win the House, with the Senate too close to call.
• Later this week: ADP, ISM services and the Treasury refunding on Wednesday, jobless claims on Thursday and the October jobs report on Friday (Newsquawk).

What it means for options traders

Today’s expiration misses the election. Index options that expire at 4:00 p.m. settle three hours before the first polls close. Saxo had today’s S&P 500 implied move at about 0.86%, or 64.70 points, while its one-day volatility gauge at 17.90 implied about 1.13%. Reuters, citing ORATS, said options price about a 0.8% move for Wednesday, against a 0.6% average implied daily move over the past month. Election risk shows up in Wednesday’s expiration and later, not today’s.

The front of the curve is bid. Saxo had the nine-day gauge at 22.46 against the VIX at 21.15, a ratio of 1.062, up from 0.99 a day earlier. Three-month vol was only about 2% above the VIX, and Saxo called the curve flat. November VIX futures were at 20.45 and December at 19.89 (Bank of Vol), both below spot. Through Friday, Saxo had 1.85% priced, where time decay alone would have left about 1.65%. That gap is what a calendar spread trades, and it can close quickly once an event passes.

Index calm, single-stock noise. Saxo had SKEW at 152.78 against a 145.95 median, and implied correlation at 15.74. Low correlation means stocks are moving apart, which is what Apple falling while chips rise looks like. An index quote can look quiet while single-name premium stays high: Apple was priced for 4.0% on its report, close to its pre-market move.

0DTE conditions today. JOLTS and factory orders are the scheduled US releases in the session, and both land 30 minutes after the open. AMD, the other after-close reports and the poll results all arrive after today’s index options expire. Same-day spreads are exposed to the path of today’s session, and spreads can widen around the open while the VIX sits above 21. The discipline is sizing by defined maximum loss, not by a planned exit.

Desk rule for today: match each risk to the expiration that actually contains it.

Sources

• Yahoo Finance, Stock market today: futures waver ahead of midterm election results, AMD earnings (quote strip read about 7:13 a.m. ET: futures, VIX, 10-year, crude, gold; JOLTS and factory orders consensus).
• TipRanks, Stock Market Today, Nov. 3 (5:40 a.m. ET futures, Brent, Apple and Palantir reasons, Monday’s moves).
• Bank of Vol, Apple Falls 4% on Memory Costs as America Votes and Chips Bounce (pre-market movers, 2- and 30-year yields, VIX futures).
• Saxo, Market Quick Take, 3 November 2026 (VIX close, MOVE comment, data times, poll closings).
• Saxo, The vote week outprices the month, Options Brief, 3 November 2026 (implied moves, volatility gauges, SKEW, implied correlation, Apple pricing).
• Reuters via MarketScreener, Investors ready for possible shake-up in Congress as Election Day arrives (polls, ORATS implied move for Wednesday).
• Yahoo Finance, AMD, Arista, Supermicro Earnings Previews (consensus, after-close timing).
• Benzinga via KuCoin, AMD Options Imply $90.7 Billion Move After Earnings (implied earnings moves).
• Strong Buy Analytics, Stock Market Outlook for Tuesday, November 03, 2026 (earnings timing, Fed schedule).
• BioPharmaWatch, Pfizer Reports Strong Q3 2026 Results (Pfizer guidance).
• Newsquawk, Weekly Economic Calendar, 2nd-6th November 2026 (week’s data, Fed speakers, refunding).
• Newsquawk, US Treasury bill sales for November 2 and 3 (6-week bills).
• This desk note is an AI-written digest grounded in the named sources above. Figures may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

Related reading

• Trading Calendars by Simon Hertz, available on Amazon.
• Trading 0DTE Spreads by Simon Hertz, available on Amazon.
• Trading Verticals by Simon Hertz, available on Amazon.
• All titles: Simon Hertz author page on Amazon.

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.