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Futures Rise as Oil Drops; CPI and Three Auctions Ahead: Desk Notes for Monday

· Desk Notes Iron Condors

Desk Notes card, Nov 9, 2026: Futures firm, oil slides. Tiles: S&P 500 futures up 0.60% pre-market, VIX 23.53, down 2.11 points, WTI crude $88.39, down 2.69% this morning.

Monday, November 9, 2026: stock index futures are higher across the board, oil is sliding, and the VIX is easing as a week built around inflation data gets under way. At 7:10 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were at 7,446.25, up 44.25 or 0.60%; Dow futures at 51,881, up 496 or 0.97%; and Nasdaq 100 futures at 27,216, up 130.75 or 0.48% (CNBC). Today's calendar is light, but the week carries October CPI on Tuesday, PPI on Friday and three coupon auctions. Last session in detail: Closing Notes for Friday.

Before the bell

  • Futures. The CNBC readings above were taken at 7:10 a.m. ET, with each change measured against the prior settle. Yahoo Finance's futures board a few minutes later had the same picture: S&P 500 futures up 0.62%, Dow futures up 0.98% and Nasdaq futures up 0.52%, with Russell 2000 futures up 1.28%.
  • Nvidia lags. Nvidia shares were down about 4% in premarket trading after the company's board opened an independent investigation related to CEO Jensen Huang, Yahoo Finance reported. The broader indexes were shrugging it off so far, with chip and AI names still the center of attention after last week's swings.
  • VIX. 23.53, down 2.11 points or 8.23%, at 7:20 a.m. ET (CNBC). Yahoo Finance's board showed a similar drop, to about 23.4.
  • Yields. At about 7:20 a.m. ET the 2-year yield was 4.534%, up 0.012, the 10-year 4.859% and the 30-year 5.258%, down 0.002 (CNBC).
  • Oil lower. WTI crude was $88.39 a barrel, down $2.44 or 2.69%, at 7:11 a.m. ET (CNBC); Yahoo Finance had $88.33, down 2.75%, shortly after.

On today’s calendar

  • 8:40 a.m. ET: Fed Governor Bowman speaks, and again at 12:15 p.m. (Trading Economics).
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: September wholesale inventories, consensus 0.6% after 0.5%, and the Conference Board employment trends index. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks at 10:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. (Trading Economics).
  • 11:00 a.m. ET: New York Fed consumer inflation expectations for October, after 3.9% (Trading Economics).
  • 11:30 a.m. ET: 3- and 6-month bill auctions; 12:15 p.m. Richmond Fed President Barkin; 1:00 p.m. 3-year note auction (Trading Economics).
  • Earnings today: companies on Yahoo Finance's list include Constellation Energy, KKR, Occidental Petroleum, Take-Two Interactive, The Trade Desk, Hims & Hers, Rocket Lab, monday.com, Plug Power and Lucid.

The week ahead

  • Tuesday, 8:30 a.m. ET: October CPI. Trading Economics shows consensus for headline CPI at 0.3% on the month and 3.9% on the year, after 0.6% and 3.7%, and for core CPI at 0.2% on the month and 2.8% on the year, after 0.3% and 2.6%. The 10-year note auction follows at 1:00 p.m., with several Fed speakers through the day, including Waller early and Logan at 9:35 a.m.
  • Wednesday: Veterans Day. Trading Economics lists only the weekly mortgage data.
  • Thursday: jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. (consensus 195,000 after 189,000), existing home sales at 10:00 a.m., the 30-year bond auction at 1:00 p.m. and the October federal budget statement at 2:00 p.m., plus Fed speakers including Barr, Daly and Williams (Trading Economics).
  • Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET: October PPI. Consensus is 0.4% on the month after 1.3%, with core at 0.3% after 0.7% (Trading Economics).

What it means for options traders

What a 23.53 VIX prices. Dividing by 16 gives about 1.47% a day, or roughly 110 points on S&P 500 futures at this morning's level. That is a rough shortcut, not a forecast, but it frames the size of move the market is paying for into a week with two inflation reports.

Event dates in the term structure. CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Friday sit inside this week's expirations. Short-dated options that span Tuesday's 8:30 a.m. release usually carry extra premium that tends to come out once the number is known. Compare the implied move for Tuesday's expiration with Monday's and Wednesday's on a live chain to see how much the market is charging for the print.

Range trades around a print. An iron condor opened today holds Tuesday's CPI inside its life. The wings decide how much a gap through a short strike can cost, so the maximum loss is set at entry, not at the open after the release. Width and size are the controls; the release time is not.

Falling vol, firm futures. A drop in the VIX alongside higher futures is the usual pairing, and it often flattens put skew a little. A drop in front-month implied volatility the day before a known event can also leave the event premium concentrated in a single expiration.

0DTE conditions today. No major data before the open; the scheduled items inside the session are wholesale inventories and Goolsbee at 10:00 a.m., inflation expectations at 11:00 a.m., Bowman and Barkin at 12:15 p.m. and the 3-year auction at 1:00 p.m. Single-stock moves such as Nvidia's can still move the index. Know the maximum loss before entry and size from that figure.

Desk rule for the week: mark the release times first, then pick the expirations.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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