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Nasdaq Futures Dip as Oil Slides; October CPI at 8:30: Desk Notes for Tuesday

· Desk Notes 0DTE

Desk Notes card, Nov 10, 2026: CPI day: tech eases, oil slides. Tiles: Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.39% pre-market, VIX 19.99, up 0.07 points, WTI crude $85.12, down 1.99%.

Tuesday, November 10, 2026: futures are split ahead of the October consumer price index. At 7:13 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were at 7,575.25, up 1.00 point or 0.01%; Dow futures at 52,690, up 192 or 0.37%; and Nasdaq 100 futures at 27,906.25, down 108.25 or 0.39% (CNBC). Oil is lower again, Treasury yields are a touch higher, and the day turns on the 8:30 a.m. CPI release, with a 10-year note auction and several Fed speakers after it. Monday's broad rally, with the S&P 500 up 2.35%, is covered in Closing Notes for Monday.

Before the bell

  • Futures. The CNBC readings above were taken at 7:13 a.m. ET, measured against the prior settle. Yahoo Finance's morning report described the same split: Dow futures up 0.3%, S&P 500 futures edging higher and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3% after Monday's rally.
  • Nvidia. Nvidia shares edged up in early trading after falling more than 4% on Monday, as investors continue to weigh the board's investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang (Yahoo Finance).
  • The Fed backdrop. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a London speech this morning that he is leaning toward a quarter-point rate increase at the December meeting, and that a hotter-than-expected October inflation reading would make him consider a half-point move (Yahoo Finance). Yahoo Finance also cited the CME FedWatch Tool putting the odds of a December quarter-point hike above 80%.
  • VIX. 19.99, up 0.07 points or 0.35%, at 7:23 a.m. ET (CNBC).
  • Yields. At 7:24 a.m. ET the 2-year yield was 4.618%, up 0.071; the 10-year 4.892%, up 0.03; and the 30-year 5.269%, up 0.013 (CNBC).
  • Oil lower. WTI crude was $85.12 a barrel, down $1.73 or 1.99%, at 7:14 a.m. ET (CNBC). Yahoo Finance reported both Brent and WTI down more than 2% this morning.
  • Small business. The NFIB small business optimism index for October came in at 97.8, against a consensus of 97.7 and 97.9 the month before (Trading Economics).

On today’s calendar

  • 8:15 a.m. ET: ADP's weekly employment change (Trading Economics).
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: October CPI. Trading Economics shows consensus for headline CPI at 0.3% on the month, after 0.6%, and 3.9% on the year, after 3.7%. Core CPI is expected at 0.2% on the month, after 0.3%, and 2.8% on the year, after 2.6%. Real earnings come out at the same time.
  • 9:35 a.m. ET: Dallas Fed President Logan speaks (Trading Economics).
  • 11:00 a.m. ET: household debt report for the third quarter; 12:00 p.m. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (Trading Economics).
  • 1:00 p.m. ET: 10-year note auction. The previous 10-year sale came at 5.300% (Trading Economics).
  • 1:30 p.m. ET: Fed Governor Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Schmid speak; Bowman speaks again at 6:30 p.m. The API weekly crude inventory figures follow at 4:30 p.m. (Trading Economics).
  • Earnings: companies on Yahoo Finance's list for today include CoreWeave, TransDigm, Petrobras, Honda, Sea, Alcon, Venture Global, On Holding, Wix.com, Sonos and StubHub, with CoreWeave, D-Wave Quantum and Rigetti Computing reporting after the close.
  • Wednesday: Trading Economics lists only the weekly mortgage data. Jobless claims and the 30-year bond auction follow on Thursday, and October PPI on Friday.

What it means for options traders

What a 19.99 VIX prices. Dividing by 16 gives about 1.25% a day, or roughly 95 points on S&P 500 futures at this morning's level. It is a rough rule of thumb, not a forecast, but it gives a scale for judging how big a CPI reaction would be relative to what is already priced.

The release lands before the cash open. CPI comes out an hour before the bell, so today's expiration opens with the number already known. Much of the event premium in same-day options tends to leave at the open; what is left prices the rest of the session, including the 1:00 p.m. auction and the Fed speakers. Compare today's implied move with Wednesday's and Friday's on a live chain: Friday's expiration also carries PPI.

Rates are part of the event. With Waller tying the size of a December move to this report, the reaction can run through yields as much as through stocks. A 10-year auction three and a half hours after the print gives the bond market a second test the same day. Index options react to that second leg too.

Split futures, split risk. Dow futures up and Nasdaq futures down means index choice matters today. A spread on the Nasdaq 100 and one on the S&P 500 can behave quite differently on the same headline, so match the underlying to the exposure you want.

0DTE conditions today. The main number is out before the open, which leaves Logan at 9:35 a.m., the auction at 1:00 p.m. and Bowman and Schmid at 1:30 p.m. as the scheduled items inside the session. Defined-risk structures set the maximum loss at entry; size from that figure, not from the credit.

Desk rule for today: let the 8:30 number settle in the open before reading the vol surface.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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