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Dow Futures Jump as Democrats Sweep Congress; ADP, Refunding and ISM Ahead: Desk Notes for Wednesday

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Desk Notes card, Nov 4, 2026: Votes counted, futures climb, VIX sinks. Tiles: S&P 500 futures up 0.86% pre-market at 7:20 a.m. ET, VIX 18.27, down 2.56 points, 10-year yield 4.913% this morning.

Wednesday, November 4, 2026: index futures have climbed back from a sharp overnight drop now that Democrats have won both the House and the Senate. CNBC’s quote pages showed S&P 500 futures at 7,661.75, up 65.00 points or 0.86%, at 7:20 a.m. ET. Dow futures were at 52,722.00, up 827.00 or 1.59%, and Nasdaq 100 futures at 28,402.25, up 96.50 or 0.34%, both at 7:21 a.m. ET. All three changes are measured from Tuesday’s settle. With the election behind it, the day turns to ADP at 8:15 a.m., the Treasury refunding at 8:30 a.m., ISM services at 10:00 a.m., and Qualcomm and Arm after the close. Last session in detail: Closing Notes.

Before the bell

  • A wide overnight swing. S&P 500 futures touched 7,490.00 and 7,687.75, and Nasdaq 100 futures traded as low as 27,615.75 (CNBC). Reuters put the worst of it at 1.4% for the S&P 500 and 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100. At 4:22 a.m. ET, S&P 500 futures were up only 0.35% (Reuters). Yahoo Finance’s quote strip, read about 7:10 a.m. ET, showed a firmer 1.09% on the S&P 500, 1.60% on the Dow and 1.45% on the Russell 2000, so these levels are moving quickly.
  • The election. Democrats took control of both chambers, and President Trump accepted the results (Reuters). In Texas, Democrat Gina Hinojosa, who has pledged a data center moratorium, won the governor’s race (Yahoo Finance). Wells Fargo estimates Texas holds about 27% of US data center gigawatts (CNBC), which is why AI names sold off first.
  • AMD and the chip reports. AMD was up about 6% (Reuters, TheStreet) after Tuesday’s beat and guidance. CoreWeave was down 3.6% in an early CNBC read. Nvidia’s direction differed by source and time, so we leave it out.
  • Rotation by policy. First Solar was up 8.5%, while Molina rose 6.3% and HCA 7.16% in the same CNBC read, taken about 4:30 a.m. ET. SpaceX and Tesla were each down about 4% at 4:22 a.m. ET (Reuters).
  • Early reports. McDonald’s rose more than 2% after adjusted EPS of $3.57 beat $3.38, though revenue of $7.16 billion missed $7.29 billion and US same-store sales fell 0.2% (CNBC). Uber’s revenue was $14.76 billion (Breaking The News) against a $14.66 billion estimate (Newsquawk). CVS reported EPS of $2.09 against $1.65 (Trading Economics, Newsquawk) and is the subject of a Wall Street Journal report on splitting off its retail pharmacy business (CNBC). Novo Nordisk beat and raised its outlook (CNBC).
  • VIX falling. 18.27, down 2.56 points or 12.29% from Tuesday’s 20.83 close, at 7:30 a.m. ET (CNBC). Yahoo Finance had 18.05 about 20 minutes earlier. VIX futures traded at 20.90 late Tuesday during the sell-off (CNBC).
  • Yields lower. At 7:29 a.m. ET, the 10-year was 4.913%, down 0.037, and the 2-year 4.604%, down 0.01. The 30-year was 5.289%, down 0.035, at 7:30 a.m. ET (CNBC, against its prior close). Yahoo Finance’s strip showed 4.952%, which does not fit CNBC’s stamped quote or Reuters’ report of lower long yields, so we use CNBC.
  • Oil and gold. At 7:20 a.m. ET, Brent was $102.08, down 1.47%, and WTI $95.02, down 1.11% (CNBC). Gold futures were $4,052.20, up 2.84% (Yahoo Finance, about 7:10 a.m. ET).

Tuesday’s session, for background: the S&P 500 rose 0.36%, the Nasdaq Composite 0.83%, and the Dow fell 0.38%.

On today’s calendar

  • 8:15 a.m. ET: October ADP private payrolls, consensus 69,000 after 90,000 (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance has 70,000).
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: September trade balance, consensus a $108 billion deficit after $105.6 billion. Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement arrives at the same time, with sizes for the 3-year, 10-year and 30-year sales set for November 9, 10 and 12 (Trading Economics, TreasuryDirect). Traders will also look for buyback detail, which Treasury promised at this refunding (PR Newswire).
  • 9:45 a.m. ET: final S&P Global services PMI, consensus 57.9.
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM services, consensus 54.8 after 54.9, with prices at 74.0 last month (Trading Economics; Yahoo Finance has 54.7).
  • 10:30 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. ET: EIA crude inventories, then $75 billion of 17-week bills (Trading Economics, TreasuryDirect).
  • Fed: no speakers listed today. Hammack and Barkin speak Thursday morning, and Logan Thursday evening (Trading Economics).
  • After the close: Qualcomm at $2.16 a share on $10.12 billion, with 8.33% implied. AppLovin at about $4.03 on $2.08 billion, with 16.52% implied. Snap carries 12.57% and Sunrun 16.59%. Arm is at $0.47 on $1.38 billion, and MercadoLibre at $9.27 on $10.69 billion (Newsquawk estimates; implied moves from Benzinga).
  • Later this week: jobless claims on Thursday, then October payrolls on Friday, consensus 65,000 after 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2% (Trading Economics).

What it means for options traders

The event passed and the premium left. Tuesday’s note flagged election risk sitting in Wednesday’s expiration. That risk has now been resolved, and the VIX shows it. Reuters, citing ORATS, reported on Tuesday that options priced about 0.8% for today. S&P 500 futures are up about that much, yet the VIX is 2.56 points lower. A long option can be right on direction and size and still lose implied volatility once the unknown is gone.

Range is not the same as move. The overnight high and low span 197.75 S&P points, about 2.6% of the settle. An implied move describes the distance from start to finish, not the path between. Anyone holding short premium through the night saw a drawdown much larger than the 0.8% figure suggests, even though the current level sits close to it. Defined-risk structures exist for exactly that gap.

What remains on the curve. With the election gone, the nearest scheduled risks are the refunding, ISM, Friday’s payrolls and next Tuesday’s October CPI (Trading Economics). A calendar spread now trades those dates against a front month that has lost its largest event. We could not confirm this morning’s VIX futures or term structure, so compare live quotes before reading anything into the shape.

Single names, wide dispersion. Solar and managed care are rising while data center names fall, on the same headline. An index gain of under 1% can hide moves of 5% to 8% underneath, and tonight’s implied moves on Qualcomm and AppLovin are large by comparison. Implied moves are not forecasts; they are the price of uncertainty before the report.

0DTE conditions today. ADP, trade and the refunding land before the open, while ISM arrives 30 minutes into the session and EIA an hour in. As a rough rule, dividing the VIX by 16 gives about 1.14% for one day at 18.27. Same-day spreads carry the risk of the 10:00 a.m. release and of any yield reaction to the refunding, and quotes can be wide at the open after a night like this. The discipline stays the same: size by defined maximum loss, not by a planned exit.

Desk rule for today: price the events that are left, not the one that just ended.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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