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Nasdaq Futures Bounce, Dow Futures Slide; October Payrolls Next: Desk Notes for Friday

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Desk Notes card, Nov 6, 2026: Chips bounce into jobs report. Tiles: Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.46% pre-market, VIX 26.67, down 1.51 points, 10-year yield 4.866% at 7:25 a.m. ET.

Friday, November 6, 2026: index futures are pulling in two directions before the October jobs report. At about 7:11 a.m. ET, Yahoo FinanceYahoo Finance’s futures board at about 7:11 a.m. ET, showed#8217;s futures board showed Nasdaq 100 futures at 27,143.50, up 391.50 or 1.46%, and S&P 500 futures at 7,395.75, up 12.75 or 0.17%. Dow futures were at 51,040.00, down 575.00 or 1.11%. All three changes run from the prior settle. Payrolls arrive at 8:30 a.m., consumer sentiment at 10:00 a.m., and Fed speakers Musalem and Bowman are due at 9:10 a.m. and 12:15 p.m.. Thursday’s rout was the worst session since April 2025. Last session in detail: Closing Notes.

Before the bell

  • A second read on the split. Trading Economics had S&P 500 futures up 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 1.5% and Dow futures down around 500 points. TipRanks, at 5:35 a.m. ET, had the same shape: up 0.27%, up 1.35% and down 0.82%. Russell 2000 futures were close to flat at 2,734.10, down 1.30 (Yahoo Finance).
  • Chips rebound. Trading Economics described dip buying across the big chipmakers: Micron up 8.9%, AMD 7.6%, Broadcom 4.6%, Nvidia 4.1% and Tesla 1.2%. Yahoo Finance’s strip agreed on Micron at 8.92% and had Nvidia at 3.91%, without a time. Stock Chartistry had Marvell up 7.30% at about 5:08 a.m. ET.
  • Last night’s reports. Airbnb earned $3.16 a share against a $2.85 estimate on revenue of $4.87 billion, and its fourth-quarter revenue guide of $3.22–$3.28 billion topped the Street (Yahoo Finance).
  • VIX. 26.67, down 1.51 points from Thursday’s 28.18 close, at about 7:25 a.m. ET (Trading Economics). Yahoo Finance’s board showed 26.78, down 1.40. Stock Chartistry had VIX futures down 3.41% at about 5:08 a.m. ET.
  • Yields a touch higher. The 10-year was 4.866% at 7:25 a.m. ET, up about 0.03 from 4.84%, and near its lowest level in two months. The 2-year was about 4.50% and the 30-year about 5.28%, each up about 0.03 (Trading Economics).
  • Fed pricing. Trading Economics put the odds of a December hike at around 68%, down from nearly 83% a day earlier.
  • Oil near flat, on a big week. Brent was $98.18, down $0.11, at 7:25 a.m. ET (Trading Economics), and is on course for its steepest weekly drop since March 2020, more than 13%, on hopes of a Middle East diplomatic breakthrough. WTI was $90.89, up $0.37, on Yahoo Finance’s board; Trading Economics showed about $90.52. TipRanks had both lower at about 5:35 a.m. ET, so treat the WTI level as approximate.

Thursday’s session, for background: the Dow fell 3.44%, the S&P 500 4.36% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.52%, which left the Nasdaq in correction territory. For the week so far, Trading Economics has the S&P 500 down nearly 3%, the Nasdaq down about 4.4% and the Dow down 0.5%.

On today’s calendar

  • Already out: Fed speaker Williams was scheduled at 4:30 a.m. ET (Trading Economics). Humana has reported, with a loss of $0.70 a share that Trading Economics flagged as below expectations.
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: October payrolls, after 29,000 in September. Consensus varies by survey: 65,000 from Trading Economics and Bloomberg, 59,000 from Dow Jones (via TipRanks) and 55,000 on Yahoo Finance’s calendar. Unemployment is expected at 4.2%, unchanged. Hourly earnings are expected up 0.3% on the month after 0.1%, and 2.9% on the year after 3%.
  • 9:10 a.m. ET: Fed speaker Musalem (Trading Economics).
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary November, consensus 48 after 48.0 on Trading Economics, and 47.3 on Yahoo Finance. One-year inflation expectations were 4.7% last month.
  • 12:15 p.m. ET: Fed speaker Bowman (Trading Economics).
  • 3:00 p.m. ET: September consumer credit, consensus $12 billion after $8.28 billion (Trading Economics).
  • Earnings today: Moderna, Enbridge, Brookfield Asset Management, Vistra, Ubiquiti, Franklin Templeton and Charter (Yahoo Finance), plus Oklo and TeraWulf (TipRanks).
  • Next week: 3-year notes Monday, 10-years Tuesday and 30-years Thursday, each at 1:00 p.m. ET, with October CPI on Tuesday and PPI on Friday, both at 8:30 a.m. ET (Trading Economics).

What it means for options traders

What a 26.67 VIX prices. Dividing by 16 gives about 1.67% a day, or roughly 123 points on S&P 500 futures at this morning’s level. That is a rough shortcut. Compare it with Thursday’s 4.36% drop and this morning’s quiet 0.17% in S&P 500 futures. A single realized day says little on its own about the next one, but the two figures show how wide the range of recent outcomes has been.

Index calm can hide a rotation. A 2.57 percentage point gap between Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures sits under a nearly flat S&P 500 contract. Offsetting sector moves can hold an index together while its members swing, so index implied volatility and single-stock implied volatility can tell different stories on the same morning.

Term structure into a weekend. After a jump in volatility, the front of the curve often rises more than the back, and calendars are sensitive to that shape. Today’s expiration holds payrolls, and anything held past the close also carries the weekend and next Tuesday’s CPI. Check live quotes before reading anything into its shape.

After-earnings premium. Names that reported last night open with their event resolved, which usually reprices front-month implied volatility at the open. Compare implied moves for today’s reporters on a live chain.

0DTE conditions today. Payrolls land an hour before the open, so much of that repricing happens before the first same-day trade. Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. and Bowman at 12:15 p.m. are the scheduled events inside the session. The rule does not change: know the maximum loss before entry, and size from that figure rather than from a planned exit.

Desk rule for today: let the number print, then read the tape.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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