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Nasdaq Futures Slide as Nvidia Drops; Claims and 30-Year Auction Ahead: Desk Notes for Thursday

· Desk Notes Verticals

Desk Notes card, Nov 12, 2026: Nvidia stumbles, bonds reopen. Tiles: Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.86% pre-market, VIX 18.18, up 0.69 points, 10-year yield 5.002% this morning.

Thursday, November 12, 2026: the chip rebound is meeting its first test. At 7:10 a.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were at 28,227.00, down 246.25 points or 0.86%; S&P 500 futures at 7,609.50, down 31.00 or 0.41%; and Dow futures at 52,592, up 14 or 0.03% (CNBC). Nvidia is the weight on tech, and the bond market reopens after Veterans Day into a busy calendar: jobless claims, five Fed speakers and a 30-year bond auction. Last session in detail: Closing Notes for Wednesday.

Before the bell

  • Futures. The CNBC readings above were taken at 7:10 a.m. ET against the prior settle. Yahoo Finance showed the same picture, with S&P 500 futures down 0.43% at 7:09 a.m. ET. The split runs the opposite way from yesterday: tech is lower while Dow futures are flat to slightly higher.
  • Nvidia. Shares were at $160.73 in pre-market trading at 7:20 a.m. ET, down $13.00 or 7.48% from Wednesday's close (Yahoo Finance). The drop follows reports that the company's board is meeting to decide whether to remove CEO Jensen Huang (Yahoo Finance, citing the Wall Street Journal).
  • The rest of the chip group. Intel and Micron were lower before the bell while AMD was higher (Yahoo Finance), so the selling is not uniform across the sector.
  • VIX. 18.18, up 0.69 points or 3.95%, at 7:21 a.m. ET (CNBC).
  • Yields. With Treasuries trading again, the 10-year yield was 5.002%, up 0.013 point; the 2-year 4.763%, up 0.036; and the 30-year 5.349%, unchanged, at 7:18 a.m. ET (CNBC).
  • Oil. WTI crude for December was $85.89 a barrel, down $0.64 or 0.74%, at 7:11 a.m. ET (CNBC).
  • Rates backdrop. Analysts have been raising their expectations for Fed rate hikes since Tuesday's hotter-than-expected inflation report (Yahoo Finance).

Wednesday in one line: the S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38 and the VIX closed at 17.49 as chip stocks rebounded.

On today’s calendar

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: initial jobless claims, consensus 195K after 189K; continuing claims, consensus 1,710K after 1,718K (Trading Economics).
  • 10:00 a.m. ET: October existing home sales, consensus 3.85 million after 3.99 million (Trading Economics).
  • Fed speakers: Hammack at 9:00 a.m., Barr at 10:00 a.m., Goolsbee at 11:30 a.m., Daly at 1:10 p.m. and Williams at 6:30 p.m. ET (Trading Economics).
  • Treasury: 4-, 8- and 17-week bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and the 30-year bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (Trading Economics).
  • Energy: EIA crude inventories at noon ET (Trading Economics).
  • Earnings before the open: Brookfield, Nebius and Korea Electric Power (Yahoo Finance).
  • Earnings after the close: Cisco (EPS estimate $1.33), Applied Materials ($4.05), Nu Holdings, Cerebras and QXO (Yahoo Finance).
  • Looking to Friday: October PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, with consensus at 0.4% on the month after 1.3%, and core PPI at 0.3% after 0.7% (Trading Economics).

What it means for options traders

What an 18.18 VIX prices. Dividing by 16 gives about 1.14% a day, or roughly 86 points on S&P 500 futures at this morning's level. It is a rule of thumb, not a forecast. Yesterday the index moved a little more than its priced daily move; today the open will show whether the Nvidia news keeps realized volatility running at or above implied.

Single-name risk versus index risk. A 7.48% pre-market move in one of the largest companies in the index is a reminder of why implied volatility on an individual stock can jump far above index volatility on news that has nothing to do with earnings. A vertical spread on a name like this sets the maximum loss at entry, which matters most on days when the gap is already in the price before the open.

Rates are back in the room. After a day off, the bond market has claims at 8:30, Fed speakers through the session and a 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m. A weak auction or a hawkish remark can move yields in the middle of the day, and with the 10-year near 5% that can reach equity volatility quickly. Short-dated options carry the most sensitivity to that kind of intraday shift.

Event stacking into Friday. Cisco and Applied Materials report after today's close, and PPI comes before tomorrow's open. Compare the implied moves on Thursday and Friday expirations on a live chain: Friday's carries both the overnight earnings and the inflation print.

0DTE conditions today. Scheduled events at 8:30 a.m., 10:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. fall before or inside the session, plus single-stock headline risk. Defined-risk structures make the worst case known in advance; size from that figure, not from the credit collected.

Desk rule for today: when one stock moves the index, check which index you are trading.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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