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Nasdaq Futures Slip as Chips Stay Weak; Claims Today, Payrolls Friday: Desk Notes for Thursday

· Desk Notes Verticals

Desk Notes card, Nov 5, 2026: Rally cools, chips stay under pressure. Tiles: Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.59% pre-market at 7:16 a.m. ET, VIX 16.88, up 0.27 points, 10-year yield 4.892% this morning.

Thursday, November 5, 2026: the post-election rally is splitting in two. CNBC’s quote pages showed Nasdaq 100 futures at 28,398.75, down 168.00 points or 0.59%, at 7:16 a.m. ET, while Dow futures were at 53,838.00, up 335.00 or 0.63%, and S&P 500 futures at 7,736.50, up 16.00 or 0.21%. All three changes run from Wednesday’s settle. Chip and data center stocks are still the weak spot. Today brings jobless claims and productivity at 8:30 a.m., two Fed speakers before the open, and Airbnb after the close, all one day ahead of Friday’s October payrolls. Last session in detail: Closing Notes.

Before the bell

  • Two sides of the tape. Yahoo Finance showed the same split, with the Dow up 0.72% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.51%. Reuters had the Nasdaq 100 down 0.63% at 5:04 a.m. ET and the S&P 500 close to flat. Overnight, Nasdaq 100 futures ranged from 28,167.75 to 28,668.50 and S&P 500 futures from 7,691.00 to 7,738.75 (CNBC).
  • Chips and data centers. Qualcomm was down 10.1% in pre-market trade after its smartphone chip sales fell short of estimates, on soft demand and lower Apple-related revenue (Reuters). In the same Reuters report, Nvidia was down 0.4%, Intel 1.7% and Marvell 2.5%, with CoreWeave off 1.8%, Nebius 2.5%, and Dell and HPE about 2% each. UBS strategists, quoted by Reuters, see roughly 30% of expected 2028 data center additions at risk from pauses in key states.
  • Big tech holding up. Amazon, Meta and Alphabet were each up about 0.5%, on the view that a slower AI buildout helps them. SpaceX and Tesla were each down more than 1% (Reuters).
  • Last night’s reports. AppLovin was up 16.5% at $316.50 after beating estimates and guiding above them (Benzinga; Reuters had 16.4%). Snap fell 10.1% and Fair Isaac 9% (Reuters). Zillow was down 16.6% at $28.73 and Dutch Bros down 15.6% at $37.05, while Sunrun rose 15.6% to $10.17 (Benzinga).
  • VIX. 16.88, up 0.27 points or 1.63% from Wednesday’s 16.61 close, at 7:26 a.m. ET (CNBC). Investing.com’s strip showed 16.91 and Yahoo Finance’s 16.83.
  • Yields flat after an early dip. At 7:26 a.m. ET the 10-year was 4.892%, unchanged on CNBC’s measure after a low of 4.837%. At 7:24 a.m. ET the 2-year was 4.608%, up 0.027, and the 30-year 5.272%, down 0.008 (CNBC).
  • Oil bouncing. WTI was $89.50, up $1.38 or 1.57%, at 7:14 a.m. ET (CNBC). Brent was $96.65, up $2.03 or 2.15% (CNBC). That Brent quote carries a 1:14 p.m. BST stamp, a label that doesn’t fit November, but the direction agrees with Reuters, which had Brent up more than 1% this morning after an 8% drop on Wednesday.
  • Bank of England. The Bank raised rates to 4%, its first hike since 2023. Every member backed tightening, and Catherine Mann voted for a half point. Governor Bailey said more could follow unless the Middle East conflict is resolved (City AM).

Wednesday’s session, for background: the Dow rose 3.03%, the S&P 500 1.58% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.44%.

On today’s calendar

  • Already out: Challenger counted 43,994 announced job cuts in October, down 71% from a year earlier (Yahoo Finance), which Trading Economics called a three-year low.
  • 8:30 a.m. ET: initial jobless claims, consensus 196,000 after 194,000, and continuing claims, consensus 1.71 million after 1.701 million. Third-quarter productivity is also due, consensus 2.8% after 1.4% (Yahoo Finance has 3%), with unit labor costs at 0.6% after 1.2% (Trading Economics).
  • Fed: Hammack at 8:50 a.m., Barkin at 9:10 a.m. and Logan at 7:00 p.m. ET (Trading Economics). The next FOMC meeting is December 8–9 (Federal Reserve), and Reuters says markets are pricing another hike.
  • Before the open: Cardinal Health at $2.94 a share on $66.59 billion, and US Foods at $1.24 on $10.59 billion (Benzinga). ConocoPhillips, Kimberly-Clark and Tapestry also report (XTB).
  • 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA natural gas stocks, after an 80 Bcf build (Trading Economics).
  • 11:30 a.m. ET: $115 billion of 4-week bills and $110 billion of 8-week bills (TreasuryDirect).
  • After the close: Airbnb at $2.85 a share on $4.75 billion (Benzinga), along with Akamai, Affirm, Lyft and Mattel (XTB).
  • Friday, 8:30 a.m. ET: October payrolls, consensus 65,000 after 29,000, with unemployment at 4.2% and hourly earnings up 0.3% (Trading Economics). Next week brings $58 billion of 3-year notes on Monday, $42 billion of 10-years on Tuesday and $25 billion of 30-years on Thursday (TreasuryDirect), with October CPI on Tuesday (Trading Economics).

What it means for options traders

The index hides the rotation. A 0.21% gain in S&P 500 futures sits between a Dow up 0.63% and a Nasdaq 100 down 0.59%. The Nasdaq 100’s overnight range of 500.75 points is about 1.75% of its settle, while the S&P 500’s 47.75 points is about 0.62%. When sectors offset each other, an index can look calm while its members do not. That gap is one reason a low index VIX and large single-stock moves can exist on the same morning.

What a 16.88 VIX prices. Dividing by 16 gives about 1.06% a day. That is a rough shortcut, but a useful check against Wednesday’s 1.58% move in the S&P 500. CNBC ran a segment this week with Scott Nations arguing that options markets have been quick to price out risk since the election. Friday’s payrolls and next Tuesday’s CPI are both still ahead, so the question for any premium seller is whether the current level covers them.

Term structure into payrolls. Friday’s expiration holds the jobs report, while today’s holds only claims and Fed remarks. A calendar or vertical that spans Friday carries that event whether or not the position was built with it in mind. Check live quotes before reading anything into the curve’s shape.

After-earnings premium. The names that reported last night open with their event already resolved, so front-month implied volatility usually gets repriced at the open. The same logic applies tonight to Airbnb and the others. Compare their implied moves on a live chain.

0DTE conditions today. Claims and productivity land an hour before the open, and both morning Fed speakers are scheduled to start before the bell, so the regular session has no major data release on the calendar. Same-day spreads today depend more on sector flows and yields than on the calendar. The rule does not change: know the defined maximum loss before entry, and size from that figure rather than from a planned exit.

Desk rule for today: read the sectors before you read the index.

Sources

Related reading

This post is for education only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security or option. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Figures are from the sources listed and may be revised; check primary sources before relying on any number.

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